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Quora: When does high growth not imply product/market fit?


Answered originally on Quora here.

Question: For online/mobile consumer services, in what scenarios does high organic user growth not imply product-market fit?

There’s been a bunch of recent examples of products that grow quickly but have little to no retention/engagement.

The reason is that in this context, you can think of products as having 2 main components:

  • Distribution tactics: This is the viral loop – the flow within the site that generates invites, embeds, links, or otherwise exposes new users to the product. Example, for Skype, you can through to a process of inviting and build your addressbook – this generates invites.
  • Product experience: The actual usage patterns of the product. For Skype, that’s chatting or talking over VOIP.

In the case of Skype, the viral loop easily flows into the product experience – as a result, you have a nice product that’s both viral and engaging. This is the good case.

Let’s talk about the dysfunctional cases though:

Viral design patterns that don’t make sense for a product
Sometimes though, you end up with a viral loop that’s pretty different/weird compared to the core product experience. For example, there’s a few design patterns that have been viral in the past:

  • Filling out a quiz and comparing yourself to others
  • Sending a gift or a poke to a bunch of people and then asking the recipient to poke/gift back
  • Finding friends and sending invites
  • Getting a notification saying that someone has a crush on you and making you fill out email addresses to guess the crush – these emails then generate the next batch of notifications
  • … and newer patterns like the Social Reader design pattern on Facebook, or something like spammy low-quality SEO content, which isn’t viral but is the same kind of idea.

(Note these are less effective these days since they’ve been played out – I write about the idea of people becoming desensitized to marketing here)

Because finding a really effective, working viral loop can be rare, sometimes people build a viral loop and then bolt a product onto it. This can be done in a haphazard way that shows a lot of top-line growth but fails on retention/engagement.

Disjointed viral + product experiences
The problem that sometimes, after completing the viral actions, the experience of then using the product is too disjointed, and users bounce right away. For example, you couldn’t put a “find your friends” invitation system in front of a search engine. It doesn’t make any sense. Search engines aren’t social.

The way you could validate this was happening is just to look at the underlying stats past the top-line growth:

  • After signing up, how many users are active the next day? Or the next week?
  • How many users bounce after the initial viral flow?
  • How aggressive is the viral loop, and do you allow the user to understand and experience the underlying product?
  • How well does the viral loop communicate that it’s part of a larger, deeper product?
  • Does the viral loop makes sense within the context of the product? Does completing the viral loop make the resulting product experience better?

I would look at any new product and ask the above questions to understand what’s going on. In the success case, you have a lot of retention and engagement, and the more viral the product, the stickier it gets. And ideally the design of the viral loop is very “honest” as to how it fits into the rest of the products.

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  • http://culttt.com/ Philip Brown

    Hi Andrew, what do you think of the invite only process that sites like Dribbble have employed? How does the tactic of exclusivity effect product / market fit?

    I have seen a number of examples of social sites that have used this tactic at first with a huge amount of early traction. However that engagement doesn’t always seem to remain high.

  • metapede

    My perception is that Google+ had huge adoption initially but has suffered from very low retention. Do you think this is the case? If so, I’d love to hear how you’d explain it.

  • http://giffconstable.com giffc

    Agree. There have been a number of web or mobile products that have spiked in growth, getting VCs excited enough to pour money in, but without any real retention. Then reality sets in.

  • http://andrewchenblog.com Andrew Chen

    Sounds right to me.

  • http://andrewchenblog.com Andrew Chen

    Social sites aren’t just about functionality, the community is a real part of the experience. So I think the notion of curating the community becomes an important part of the UX in a way that a typical utility app wouldn’t put into play.

  • http://andrewchenblog.com Andrew Chen

    Yep, definitely not the ideal.The counterpoint to this is that sometimes crazy traction allows you to raise a bunch of money, and as long as you’re honest about where you are on product/market fit, the extra capital puts you into a better tactical position to then invest more deeply into the product experience.

  • http://twitter.com/jacktiantai Jack Tai

    Hi Andrew,

    I’m always thinking about retention rate and user growth. If you had to pick one, which one would you put first?

    Thanks!

  • http://andrewchenblog.com Andrew Chen

    Why choose between them? Seems like a false dilemma. But I think you get product/market fit first (so retention) followed by scale. You have to be mindful of both at the same time though.

  • http://twitter.com/wesperience Wes Donohoe

    hey Andrew,

    Can you talk a little bit about how you track the viral and product experience to iterate the product? Do you have any tips or specific metrics you look at?

    Do you use cohort analysis?
    I’ve struggled in the past with “analysis paralysis”. Where I changed the product and than second guessed the change because I didn’t believe we had enough user data or we experienced a spike from press and those users weren’t our targeted customers.

  • http://www.facebook.com/andrewhchen Andrew Chen

    First, you need a solid product in the market that is getting some early traction. If you don’t have 1000s of users who like (but maybe don’t love) your product, then metrics won’t help you at all.

    Once you have a product that’s basically working, and it’s time to refine and grow it, then in my experience, I’ve done a ton of metrics-stuff. And after you get all the numbers, you can avoid analysis-paralysis by not being paralyzed. Ultimately you still have to make a decision, even through the fog of numbers. Sometimes it’ll be obvious, and sometimes it won’t be.

    Adding data to the discussion is just another dimension to your decision-making. It’s nothing magic. You still need a vision for where you want to go, and the numbers can help validate your thinking.

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