@andrewchen

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Meet me and Eric Ries at a private event on March 21st – here’s how to attend

Eric Ries (Lessons Learned) on stage at Web 2.0 Expo SF 2010.

Hi everyone,
I’m hosting a fireside chat (whatever that is!) with Eric Ries on 3/21. It’ll be at a private event in the Dogpatch neighborhood of SF, and I’ve saved a few seats available for my regular readers to attend.

A couple topics I plan to touch on:

  • How Eric and I met in 2008 as unknown/unread bloggers :)
  • Going from zero to global movement for the Lean Startup
  • Biggest lessons – what worked and didn’t
  • The new Kickstarter campaign he’s putting together
  • How growth fits into the Lean Startup framework
  • What’s Eric’s up to now, and what he’s working on next
  • … and lots of time for audience Q&A

[UPDATE: Also, I’m happy to announce that Sean Ellis, who coined the term “growth hacker” and ran growth for Dropbox, Eventbrite, and others, will join us for a quick chat]

If you’re interested in attending, I made a quick form where you can tell me a bit about yourself and get an invite.

Apply to attend the event here.

Thanks,

Andrew

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Personal update: I’ve moved to Oakland! Here’s why.

Oakland-JLS-2
My new neighborhood, in Jack London Square, Oakland, CA.

Where’d you move?
I moved to a tiny neighborhood called Jack London Square in Oakland. Yes, it’s named for that guy that wrote about the gold rush. I’ve only been here 3 months but I really like it so far. Previously, I lived in Palo Alto for 5 years, then about 2 years in the Lower Pac Heights neighborhood of San Francisco, but had never really spent much time in the East Bay. I had sort of heard that people were moving from SF to Oakland, but didn’t really have a reason to check out the neighborhood until a few people I know moved here.

Here were some of the articles I read while doing research:

PS. if you call Oakland “the next Brooklyn” to people who’ve lived here for a long time, they don’t like it :)

I live near there too! / How do I find out more about it?
If there’s interest, I’ll host a tech get-together or two.

Sign up here to get updates on an upcoming brunch/drinks/dimsum/whatever in Oakland.

There aren’t too many tech people here, so it’d be fun to get the small community that is out here together.

Where is it relative to San Francisco? How’s the commute?
I travel to the city pretty much every day. I usually take the BART, and sometimes the ferry (it has wifi!).

There’s a couple ways to get to the city:

  • BART (10min walk + 20min BART)
  • Ferry ride (25min ride + walk from Ferry building)
  • Car (30min without traffic, 60min+ with traffic)

I used to live in the Mission, and going from 24th+Mission to SOMA is about comparable to my current commute. However, I occasionally do have the morbid fear that there’ll be an earthquake while I’m underwater in the train.

Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 2.07.42 PM

Where’s all the good food?
Right now, the Uptown neighborhood is opening the most new/amazing restaurants, where you can eat before you go to the Fox Theater or the Paramount for a show. Jack London Square has great food as well – there’s an eclectic mix of fancy pizza shops, vegan, and southern. A quick walk into Chinatown provides an endless supply of cheap eats, and the Oakland Chinatown is huge – about 2x the size of the city’s, without the tourist stuff.

A quick map search shows you where all the food is- pretty much in the Broadway/Telegraph corridor, but Rockridge, Temescal, and Grand Lake do well too.

Doesn’t Oakland have a ton of crime?
Crime was one of my top concerns moving to Oakland, but if the spectrum in San Francisco is aggressive/disturbed people in the Tenderloin to the nicest part of Presidio Heights, I think Oakland is about the same. You wouldn’t want to walk around Market St at 3am and you wouldn’t want to do that on Broadway in Oakland either. (Palo Alto / Menlo Park / Atherton are on a whole other planet, of course)

The biggest lesson I’ve learned from exploring the long list of East Bay neighborhoods is that Oakland is very diverse, and while the crime factor is a big one, it’s an acute problem for some neighborhoods and less of a problem for others. So, it all depends (just like SF, btw).

Houses in the Oakland Hills look like the kind of fancy houses you’d see while driving on 280 in the peninsula. Some neighborhoods like Rockridge, Grand Lake, and Adams Point are small and upscale, not unlike University Ave in Palo Alto. Uptown/Downtown feels like Market Street in San Francisco, but inexplicably cleaner. My new neighborhood, Jack London Square, feels a bit like South Beach in SOMA.

On the other hand, neighborhoods in deep East Oakland don’t feel very safe. That’s where you can find the car sideshows on YouTube.

Is it cheaper to live there?
For now, buying or renting seems to be about 50-75% the cost of San Francisco. Maybe as low as 30% if you are adventurous.

Is Oakland really warmer than San Francisco?
Yep. Sort of like the peninsula, up to 10 degrees warmer. Sometimes I miss the fog.

Here’s a typical day on the waterfront in Jack London Square.

Jack-London-Square_Bldg-F1-20-20-1200x556

Where do you go for coffee?
The headquarters for Blue Bottle Coffee is here. Yes, there’s usually a line.

But there’s also a bunch of other coffee places too:

Interestingly enough, the density of tech in Oakland is still relatively low. Cafes aren’t full of tech bros with terminal open. Coworking spaces are more likely to be nonprofits, writers, and sales, rather than unpronounceable names of startups. I’m sure a bit of this might change over time, and there’s been rumors of one of the big cos taking over the old Sears building in downtown.

bluebottlejacklondonoutside

How do I dress when I visit Oakland?
Like this video.

What’s the best way to visit Oakland?
The first step is to come out here by car/BART/ferry and check it out. I’d encourage you to do it, I think you’ll be surprised by how nice it is. And as I said above, if you’re interested in attending a casual get-together in the new neighborhood, or if you already live around here, just sign up on this mailing list and I’ll post some future updates.

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The most common mistake when forecasting growth for new products (and how to fix it)

weather
Forecasting weather is hard, and so is forecasting product growth.

Startups are about growth
Paul Graham’s essay in 2012 called “Startup = Growth” makes a big point in the first paragraph:

A startup is a company designed to grow fast. Being newly founded does not in itself make a company a startup. Nor is it necessary for a startup to work on technology, or take venture funding, or have some sort of “exit.” The only essential thing is growth. Everything else we associate with startups follows from growth.

The other important reason for new products to focus on growth is simple: You’re starting from zero. Without growth, you have nothing, and the status quo is death. Combine that with the fact that investors just want to see traction, and it’s even more important to get to interesting numbers. In fact, later in the essay, pg talks about how important it is to hit “5-7% per week.”

Getting to this number while trying to show a hockey stick leads to a bad forecast. Here’s why.

The bad forecast
The most common mistake I see in product growth forecasts looks something like this:

Image 2015-02-18 at 7.16.38 PM

In this example, the number of active users is a lagging indicator, and if you multiply this lagging indicator of a growth curve, it’s a truism that the growth will go up and to the right. If you do that, the whole thing is just a vanity exercise for how traction magically appears out of nowhere.

And of course these growth curves look the same: They all look like smooth, unadulterated hockey sticks. The problem is, it’s never that easy or smooth. In reality, you’re upgrading from one channel to another, and in the early days, you do PR but eventually that doesn’t scale. Then you’ll switch to a different channel, which takes some time but also eventually caps out. Eventually you’ll have to pick one of the very few growth models that scale to a massive level.

The point is, incrementing each month with a fixed percentage hides the details of the machinery required to generate the growth in the first place. This disconnects the actions required to be successful with the output of those actions. It disassociates the inputs from the outputs.

In other words, this type of forecast just isn’t very useful. Worse, it lulls you into a false sense of security, since “assume success” becomes the foundation of the whole model, when entrepreneurs should assume the opposite.

Create a better forecast by focusing on inputs, not outputs.

How to fix this forecast
A more complete model would start with a different foundation.

It would:

  • Focus on leading indicators that are specific to your product/business – not cookie cutter metrics like MAU, total registered, etc.
  • Start with inputs not lagging vanity metrics
  • It’d show a series of steps that show how these inputs result in outputs
  • And, how the inputs to the model would need to scale, in order to scale the output

In other words, rather than assuming a growth rate, the focus should be deriving the growth rate.

If you plan to 2X your revenue for your SaaS product, which is done by doubling the # of leads in your sales pipeline, and those leads come from content marketing – well, then I want to know how you’ll scale your content marketing. And how much content needs to be published, and whether that means new people have to be hired.

That also means that if you want to 2X the your installs/day, and plan to do it with invites, I want to understand the plan to double your invites or their conversion rates.

Or better yet, say all of this in reverse, starting with the inputs and then resulting in the outputs.

Inputs are what you actually control
Focus on the inputs because that’s what you can actually control. The outputs are just what happens when everything happens according to plan.

One helpful part of this analysis is that it helps identify key bottlenecks. If your plan to generate 2x in revenue requires you to 5X sales team headcount when it’s been hard to find even one or two good people, you know it’s not realistic. If your SEO-driven leadgen model assumes that Google is going to index your fresh content faster and with higher rank than it’s ever done, then that’s a red flag.

In the end, it’s also true what they say:

No plan survives contact with the enemy.
smart prussian army guy

Keep that in mind while you fiddle around with Excel formulas, and you’ll be in good shape.

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The race for Apple Watch’s killer app

My top essays in 2014 about mobile, growth, and tech

Why messaging apps are so addictive (Guest Post)

IAC’s HowAboutWe co-founder: How to Avoid Delusional Thinking in Start-up Growth Strategy (Guest Post)

Mobile retention benchmarks for 2014 vs 2013 show a 50% drop in D1 retention (Guest post)

New data on push notifications show up to 40% CTRs, the best perform 4X better than the worst (Guest post)

Why Android desperately needs a billion dollar success story: The best new apps are all going iPhone-first

Early Traction: How to go from zero to 150,000 email subscribers (Guest Post)

New data shows up to 60% of users opt-out of push notifications (Guest Post)

Why aren’t App Constellations working? (Guest Post)

There’s only a few ways to scale user growth, and here’s the list

Lessons learned adding messaging to a notes app (Guest Post)

Retention is King (Guest Post)

Why consumer product metrics are all terrible

How to solve the cold-start problem for social products

How to design successful social products with 3 habit-forming feedback loops

Congrats to my sis Ada Chen, who’s joining SurveyMonkey as VP Marketing

How to make content creation easy: Short-form, ephemeral, mobile, and now, anonymous

My 2013 essays on mobile, startups, and tech

When a great product hits the funding crunch

A clever way to buy Facebook ads based on what your users like (Guest post)

Use this spreadsheet for churn, MRR, and cohort analysis (Guest Post)

Zero to Product/Market Fit (Presentation)

The Rise of Fat Venture Capital

How Google and Zynga set & achieve meaningful OKRs (Guest Post)

Case studies from “Why you can’t find a technical co-founder”

Congrats to my friend Steve Chung of Frankly on their new $6M investment by SK Planet

Easter Egg Marketing: How Snapchat, Apple, and Google Hook You

How is Yahoo really doing? Here’s the Google Trends data (Guest Post)

Ignore PR and buzz, use Google Trends to assess traction instead

Books I’m reading (2013)

Constrained media: How disappearing photos, 6 second videos, and 140 characters are conquering the world

The highest ROI way to increase signups: Make a minimal homepage (Guest Post)

9 ways a billion dollar new mobile company might be created (Guest Post)

Mobile traction is getting harder, not easier. Here’s why.

Why you can’t find a technical co-founder (Guest Post)

How to grow your app revenue with DuPont analysis (Guest post)