@andrewchen

Subscribe · Featured · Recent · The Cold Start Problem 📘

Wanna bet? In 1 year, will Facebook be bigger? Or will MySpace?

UPDATE: I lost. And bought Arjun a new iPhone. Congrats Arjun!

The bet: Which social network will be bigger?
Oh this will be fun ;-) My friend Arjun (ex-Amazon, currently at Zillow) and I had the following conversation when we were talking about widget development:

Andrew: why not be more excited about the myspace integration possibilities? that’s like a 5X bigger ecoysystem

Arjun: yuck.

Andrew: ??

Arjun: myspace already has too many issues
their UI is so cluttered that it would be impossible

Andrew: i think you might just be techno-elitist

Arjun: facebook is already getting cluttered

Andrew: which biases your business calculations

Arjun: yeah, that’s probably true..

Andrew: i mean, are you separating your business evaluation and your personal evaluation?

Arjun: but myspace is dead, man.

Andrew: thats so wrong lol
myspace is growing super fast

Arjun: facebook will be growing faster
dude, i’ll bet you that in 1 year facebook will be larger than myspace

Andrew: holy shit
absolutely
i’ll take that bet
what are we betting?

Arjun: haha, are you serious?

Andrew: absolutely

Arjun: anything, what do you want
cash, fame

Andrew: iphone

We later decided that the evaluation function would be:

Comscore numbers for 1 year from now, July 23rd 2008 12:28am
Monthly unique users for MySpace and Facebook

The current snapshot of numbers
And for those that are curious, here’s the current numbers stolen off a post by Eric @ VentureBeat: MySpace is over 2X larger (109MM instead of 47MM), the Facebook growth in the last month was 22% whereas MySpace’s was about 4.3%. If this rate were to continue, then Facebook would pass MySpace in about 7 months.

I’m betting that the growth slows considerably – in fact, I might have even taken this bet out to 18 months or more, whereas Arjun is betting that it’ll continue or accelerate.

What do you guys think? Which side of the bet would you take?

UPDATE: Couple more numbers: MySpace vs Facebook: MySpace declares Victory from Mashable and also Top social networks for engagement from Jeremy Liew

PS. Get new updates/analysis on tech and startups

I write a high-quality, weekly newsletter covering what's happening in Silicon Valley, focused on startups, marketing, and mobile.

Views expressed in “content” (including posts, podcasts, videos) linked on this website or posted in social media and other platforms (collectively, “content distribution outlets”) are my own and are not the views of AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“a16z”) or its respective affiliates. AH Capital Management is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any special skill or training. The posts are not directed to any investors or potential investors, and do not constitute an offer to sell -- or a solicitation of an offer to buy -- any securities, and may not be used or relied upon in evaluating the merits of any investment.

The content should not be construed as or relied upon in any manner as investment, legal, tax, or other advice. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Any charts provided here are for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, I have not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. The content speaks only as of the date indicated.

Under no circumstances should any posts or other information provided on this website -- or on associated content distribution outlets -- be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security or interest in any pooled investment vehicle sponsored, discussed, or mentioned by a16z personnel. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services; an offer to invest in an a16z-managed pooled investment vehicle will be made separately and only by means of the confidential offering documents of the specific pooled investment vehicles -- which should be read in their entirety, and only to those who, among other requirements, meet certain qualifications under federal securities laws. Such investors, defined as accredited investors and qualified purchasers, are generally deemed capable of evaluating the merits and risks of prospective investments and financial matters. There can be no assurances that a16z’s investment objectives will be achieved or investment strategies will be successful. Any investment in a vehicle managed by a16z involves a high degree of risk including the risk that the entire amount invested is lost. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by a16z and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investments/. Excluded from this list are investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for a16z to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets. Past results of Andreessen Horowitz’s investments, pooled investment vehicles, or investment strategies are not necessarily indicative of future results. Please see https://a16z.com/disclosures for additional important information.